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The 2024-25 Premier League season promises to be a captivating blend of title challenges, top-four battles, relegation scraps and the emergence of young stars. With a summer of squad overhauls and intriguing managerial appointments, the stage is set for a season full of drama and excitement.
Title Race: City's Reign Under Threat?
Manchester City: The reigning champions are odds against to win the league for the first time since 2018. However, before jumping on that as a bet, bear in mind the reason they are so generously priced is the prospect of facing 115 Financial Fair Play charges and a looming threat of fines and a possible points deduction at some stage this season. With an unprecedented 4 titles on the bounce, another title win this year will surely settle any lingering debate about ‘Who is the best team of the Premier League era?’. Despite their wealth of talent, the core of the side is a year older, with injury concerns ever present with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and no direct replacement for Rodri (the statistics show a marked difference in results when he isn’t on the pitch).Â
Liverpool: The departure of Jurgen Klopp means a change in the Kop dugout for the first time since 2015. Despite this uncertainty, they still boast a fantastic array of talent at the club and the squad are still of a higher quality than the rest of the chasing pack. Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz had excellent Copa America tournaments over the summer and with another year in the Premier League, should be expected to kick on further.
Manchester United: United will always be talked about as a contender purely on their name alone, but there’s an argument they should be in the next section as one of the chasing pack, due to their poor performances over recent seasons. Despite an array of quality, the team is widely looked upon as dysfunctional. Matthijs de Ligt is an interesting addition in defence but his lack of game time at Bayern suggests he may take some time to settle and expectations might need to be dampened. There’s undoubted attacking riches at Ten Hag’s disposal but still major concerns defensively. If the team can get firing, they are capable of beating anyone on their day, but last season’s lack of consistency will be a major concern.Â
Chelsea: Enzo Maresca’s arrival as the head coach has been met with mixed reactions, with his lack of Premier League experience a concern. After a poor season last time out, a significant improvement is expected this time around. One concern is that Maresca hasn’t felt like he has had enough time to work on his approach during the pre-season. There’s no doubt there’s a fantastic array of quality in the squad but a running joke is that the team meetings will be like addressing a crowd at Glastonbury. Despite this huge array of talent, they lack real leadership and experience in the side and this will become increasingly important as the season goes on.Â
Top-Four Battle: Intense Competition
Newcastle United: Eddie Howe's Magpies finished in a disappointing 7th place last season and with the resources available to them, they will hope to be in contention for a Champions League place once again in 24-25. Sven Botman will be missed (due to injury) until the New Year, but because of their 7th place showing, they’ll have no European football which gives them an advantage over the rest of the chasing pack as they will have more rest time between their Premier League fixtures.Â
Tottenham Hotspur: Ange Postecoglou's attacking philosophy has been a breath of fresh air for Spurs fans and they got off to a fantastic start last season before fading badly. Dominic Solanke has arrived as a much needed ‘out and out’ striker for a team that needed a focal point last season. However, their tendency to leak goals and vulnerabilities at the back will be a concern when closing games out. Spurs had the advantage of no European football last season but will have Thursday night Europa League games to contend with this season, meaning squad rotation and additional fatigue will be a factor, adding to their challenge.Â
Aston Villa: Aston Villa had a superb season last time out and qualified for the
Champions League. This will be the first time they will play in Europe’s elite competition since 1982. They’ve spent heavily in the transfer window but the loss of Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby will still have an impact. Champions League football will be a strain on a stretched squad and they may find it hard to sustain the levels they reached last year.Â
Check out BetDEX’s lines for Match Day 1 here.
Trends from 2023-24
Here are some of the interesting stats from last season to guide some of your betting this time around.Â
Spurs games for goals!
Tottenham let in 61 goals last season and scored 74, scoring twice or more in 29 of their 38 games. 79% of their games went over 2.5 goals, with a phenomenal 84% at home. They failed to score just 4 times last season and were second in the table for both teams to score (71%).
Everton’s Solidity
Everton had 58% of their games go under 2.5 goals, the only side in the league to have more than half of their games go under that line. More than 25% of their games also had less than 1.5 goals. Sean Dyche is unlikely to embrace an attacking approach this season and with more time to work with his squad and having overcome the points deduction last season, we should expect business as usual.
Home Advantage
Newcastle have the highest home advantage differential in the league, with a difference of 22% from home to away, averaging 2.11 points per game at home but just 1.05 on the road. They were also top of the highest goal counts in their games, with 147 goals scored in their 38 games.
Crystal Palace scored 30% more at home than on the road, but the departure of Michael Olise will be a big miss this time around. Aston Villa also scored significantly more at home (27%).
Under and Over Performing big sides
Despite 8th place already being a huge disappointment for Man United, they were 15th in the table in expected points, which suggests they were fortunate to even achieve that.Â
Best Bets for Match Day 1
Fulham to score the first goal of the season @ 3.10
Based on the above-mentioned reference to Man United’s results exceeding their performances, Fulham have a chance of catching United on the break here. The Red Devils conceded an average of 0.74 first half goals per game in 2023-24 and were leading at the break in just 4 of their 19 home games.
Check out Manchester United v. Fulham lines here.
Man City to beat Chelsea @ 1.84
An eye catching price on Man City to beat Chelsea on the opening day. There are still question marks over Chelsea and the limited time Enzo Maresca has had to implement his playing style and philosophy. Chelsea haven’t beaten Man City in their last 9 attempts, losing 7 of those, and based on the chaos that is surrounding Chelsea, Man City should have enough to come back from London victorious.
Check out Chelsea v. Manchester City lines here.