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Season Preview
The curtain rises on the 2024-25 La Liga season, promising a thrilling spectacle of footballing prowess and captivating narratives. What do you get for the team (Real Madrid) that has everything? A Kylian Mbappe cherry on an already absurdly talented cake. The reigning champions are poised to defend their crown in what is expected to be a fiercely contested title race. Barcelona, under the astute guidance of Hansi Flick, and Atletico Madrid, led by the ever-passionate Diego Simeone, are primed to challenge Los Blancos' supremacy.
The Big Three
Real Madrid: The signing of Kylian Mbappe which had been rumoured for what seems like forever, has finally happened. The French superstar's blistering pace, clinical finishing, and sheer dynamism are set to elevate an already formidable attacking line. Brazilian wonderkid, Endrick, is another fantastic signing and one of the most promising talents in world football. Carlo Ancelloti’s main issue will be how to tie all this attacking talent while maintaining balance in the side. Toni Kroos’ departure is a significant one and Luka Modric with another year of mileage can’t be relied upon to regularly start games in Real’s hectic schedule.
Barcelona: Sadly, the Xavi era has come to an end, and one of the all time greats and a Barcelona legend has departed. It’s hard to know how much of a basket case Barcelona really are at the moment but on any given day, they are capable of beating anyone in world football. Despite supposed financial restrictions, a raft of players have come in and the squad is still brimming with quality, although lacking a little in defensive areas.
Hansi Flick's arrival at the helm has ushered in a renewed sense of optimism and the German tactician's meticulous approach and tactical acumen are expected to revitalise a Barcelona side that has shown glimpses of its former glory. Gavi’s return from injury will be a huge boost for the side and Lamine Yamal’s sensational performances will build expectations for him to build on his tremendous breakthrough season.
Atletico Madrid: Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid remains a force to be reckoned with. The Argentine manager's unwavering commitment to defensive organization and tactical discipline has forged a team renowned for its resilience and tenacity. The Rojiblancos boast a potent attack led by Antoine Griezmann, while their midfield, anchored by the tireless Koke, provides the platform for their relentless pressing game. Atletico's ability to grind out results and frustrate opponents makes them a formidable contender in any competition. New signing from Man City, Julian Alvarez will add extra attacking quality in the final third and Robin Le Normand, some extra quality and fresh legs in defence. It’s difficult to see any of the rest of the chasing pack challenging them for a place in the top 3.
Check out BetDEX’s lines for Match Day 1 here.
The Challengers
Girona: Last season's surprise package, Girona, faces a daunting task in replicating their remarkable achievements. The Catalan club's success was largely built upon the individual brilliance of several key players who have since departed. Manager Michel will need to inspire his new recruits and instil a similar sense of collective spirit if Girona are to maintain their upward trajectory.
Athletic Bilbao: The Basque outfit, renowned for its commitment to nurturing homegrown talent, will once again rely on its cohesive unit and unwavering team spirit. Led by the experienced Inaki Williams and the emerging Oihan Sancet, Athletic Bilbao possesses the potential to upset the established order and challenge for a Champions League spot.
Real Sociedad: La Real's attractive brand of football, along with some highly valued talent in Mikel Merion, Martin Zuimendi and Mikel Oyarzabal who impressed so much in his Euros appearances, makes them an exciting prospect. The loss of Robin Le Normand to Atletico is one concern for the backline but Imanol Alguacil's side will be aiming to build upon last season's success and challenge for a top-four finish.
The Relegation Battle
The newly promoted trio of Leganes, Real Valladolid, and Espanyol face an uphill battle to avoid an immediate return to the Segunda Division. These teams will need to adapt quickly to the demands of La Liga and display the resilience and fighting spirit necessary to survive in the top flight. Espanyol look particularly vulnerable as the side who scraped through two playoff legs and have lost their top scorer, Martin Braithwaite, over the summer.
Trends from 2023-24
Here are some of the trends from the 2023-24 season which might give you some ideas on how to play the betting markets beyond the big sides.
Games with goals
Villareal were the great entertainers of La Liga last season, with 66% of their games having 3 or more goals. Villareal in particular had 74% of their home games go over that figure. Special mention also to Atletico Madrid who had a whopping 79% of home games with over 2.5 goals.
Under the radar
Of the current 20 clubs in La Liga, Alaves were involved in those with the least goal action, with 71% of their games having less than 3 goals. Mallorca had a whopping 47% of games where there were less than 2 goals scored.
Home advantage
Alaves also top the list of home advantage, with a 27% better home record than their away results.
Interestingly, Real Madrid are 4th in LaLiga for home advantage at 21%, compared to Barcelona at just 7%, suggesting some potential angles for opposing them away from home.
Bilbao had the biggest difference in goals scored at home compared to away matches, with 2.21 per game at the San Mames, compared to just 1 per game away from home.
Getafe, Celta Vigo and Osasuna were all better at scoring on the road.
Defensively, Valencia had the biggest difference between their home defence and away. They averaged 0.74 goals conceded per game at home compared to 1.63 away from the Mestalla.
Best Bets for Match Day 1
Athletic Bilbao v Getafe- Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75
Bilbao conceded just 0.89 goals per game at home last season and Getafe had 63% of their away matches finishing with under 2.5 goals and averaged just 0.87 goals across the season. Although pre season isn’t always an accurate gauge of where a team might be, Getafe have scored just once in their 6 pre season games. All signs point to a tight Bilbao victory with Getafe struggling to get onto the scoresheet.
Check out Athletic Bilbao v Getafe lines here.
Valencia v Barcelona- Both Teams to Score @ 1.81
Valencia scored in 73% of their home matches last season and Barcelona scored in 87% of their away games. Barca have conceded in 3 of their 5 pre season games, although granted, those teams were AC Milan, Man City and Real Madrid.
Hanse Flick’s appointment as Barcelona manager will mark a change of style in tactics with a more direct style of play but will inevitably leave space for Valencia to counter attack. The last game between the two sides ended up 4-2 to Barcelona and I think we should have an entertaining match up in store for this one.
Check out Valencia v Barcelona lines here.